NFL Previews: A Waste of Time?

by Jerry Bleiman, author of Organized Sports Betting…How to Even the Score with your Bookmaker. Book/computer program at www.organizedsportsbetting.com, as well as Gambler’s Bookstore and Amazon.com

NFL previews a waste of time? Blasphemy to those hard-core NFL'ers who follow the draft, the preseason, preview publications and watch endless hours of pre-season NFL predictors. But I have one interesting factor working for me: proof.

Fantasy gamers and those who follow the NFL for pure fan enjoyment are excluded. For NFL bettors, though, I would think you would like to see some return on your preseason time and efforts. I'm afraid the odds favor disappointment. I will also make one assumption here: that previews will lead bettors towards the favorites. After all, the predictors are trying to guess which will be the best performers, not the worst.

I think proof is a very interesting concept that is largely ignored, so let's get right into it:

NFL 1999 Week One: Jets, Packers, Tennessee, and Seattle: all more than 8 point favorites. None cover; only 3 favorites cover for the week. Week Two: Green Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Jacksonville, SF and Tennessee, all more than 8 point favorites. Only one, Tennessee, covers.

Early in the season favorite players were facing 35-40% cover rates. By the end of the season this is how things looked:

Home favorites: SU 70%, ATS 48%.
Away favorites: SU 61%, ATS 45%
(SU means Straight Up, ATS means Against the Spread)

Obviously, as the season progressed, and the teams sorted themselves out, the bookmaker got on track.

NFL 2000 Week One through Three: 7 teams were favored by 8 or more, one draws, one covers for a 1-5-1 ATS record. Overall, after three weeks the ATS record looked like this: 15-27-2, about a 35% win percentage. By the end of the season it looked like this:

Home favorites: SU 64.3%, ATS 45.1%.
Away favorites: SU 64.4%, ATS 51.4%

Again, as the season progressed and more information was available, the bookmaker "got it".

Ok, first, let's explain these results, and then suggest a course of action.

I've gone back about 6 years and have been unable to find any consistency in the bookmaker's lines for the first three NFL weeks. This is evidence that he is just as confused as you are, but of course he holds the advantage with deep pockets and the vig working for him. Most of the early season lines are based on two things: last year's performance and how the team looks on paper. (For example: last year's Redskins were a team that looked good on paper)

So, after thousands of hours of reading, guessing and talking, even the pros can't weigh all of the variables that will turn last year's champ into this year's doormat. Of course, sooner or later, the "new order" becomes obvious and leads to better predictions.

What should you do to counter this difficulty? Some may suggest to simply bet all the dogs. Based on the above evidence, I can't argue against this idea, although there is no guarantee of a repeat.

But, I have a better idea: PATIENCE. I like this idea because it works on all sports, not just the NFL. If you had simply waited a few weeks you would have been able to properly evaluate the new players, draft picks, coaches, etc. and been able to avoid or take advantage of team reversals. Unfortunately, since the NFL has a very short season, you may have to wait 5-6 weeks on some teams to figure their real abilities. In NBA, NHL or MLB the same number of games will be played in 1-2 weeks, not hard to wait out.

I hope this helps you avoid some of the early NFL frustrations, Good Luck!

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