| Losing Hold'em Poker ASAP | |||||||||||||||
| Part 2: Flush Draw Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
Starting Hands
The Flop
The probability of flopping two of your suit for a four flush is 10.944 %.
The probability of only flopping one of your suit is 41.6%.
The Turn
The River
Turn and River Finally for all the possibilities if you start suited and stay to see all seven cards (your two and the five board cards) the probability that you will make a flush is 5.77%. The odds against you are 16.3:1 Simply put for every time you play two suited cards you will only make your flush about once in 16 tries. If you play low suited cards you still have to worry about a bigger flush beating you. The reason you play your suited cards in late position when there is a lot of players in the pot is that you will then be getting the correct pot odds to justify attempting a flush draw. The money you win when you make your flush will offset the money you lose when you dont make it. In a live game you can reach in you pocket if you go broke and buy more chips. In the long run you will make money with flush draws as long as you get proper odds to try. In a tournament you have to be cautious because the chips you lose on a busted draw play cant be replaced. When you go broke you go home. Even when you are getting correct odds you can do serious damage to your tournament chip stack if you dont make it. Playing every time you have suited cards without regards pot odds is suicide. Now you see why playing Any Suited from Any Position can make you lose your chips quickly and why ASAP is a good acronym for this type of player.
What about an acronym for a player who plays a Single Ace from any
Position?
Until next time, remember:
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