Thursday May 31, 2012
I was skating around in a poker tournament the other day and having a great time. Then, I managed to blow half my stack on a bluff. It wasn't that my play was that bad, I thought I had picked-up a tell on one of the two players in the hand and after he bet, I raised. And you know what? I was right, he didn't have what he was representing.
Unfortunately, the second player, who had already called the first bet, looked at me for about thirty seconds and then called. He had second pair - on a 3-flush board. That was a gutsy call. Or, more likely, I started pursing my lips again. Oh, my worst tell. A list of the top Texas Hold'em Tells can do you a lot of good, but a list of my own tells (he says with too much belief) is fairly short.
Unfortunately, that serous look I get sometimes is a killer. I used to play a decent amount of pot-limit games with the likes of Hans "Tuna" Lund and Freddie Deeb, and since they were short-handed much of the time I was very aggressive. But that darn tell. Freddie used to pick-off my bluffs like my cards were face up. I grew a beard. Didn't help. I shaved it off and kept the mustache. Didn't help. I quit playing pot-limit hold'em. That helped a lot.
It probably also helped that Freddie moved up from the limit I was playing, God Bless him. Now I only do the stress lips at no-limit hold'em. I'm thinking of wearing a bandana around my face. What do you think?
Wednesday May 30, 2012
Years ago, some sage said "Poker is pure aggression." Based on what I see these days, many players believe this to be true. They just love to go all-in. I even see people in the poker room wearing shirts that have the saying "All In" on them. Well, it's just not that simple.
I think a more accurate assessment of poker would be that it is a game of tactical aggression. Pure aggression is the all-in approach, a nuclear disaster that wipes out everything in its path. Obviously it's not subtle. In tournaments, sometimes the only way to play a hand as the binds get very high, is to go all-in, but in cash games, being subtle is often better. The best tips for maximizing your poker income should have to do with winning the most money, right? Sometimes you have to be clever.
Putting your opponent on an exact hand is an art, so is selling your hand on the river. But betting all the way is only an art, and only better than going all in, if you know just how much to wager each step of the way. I think that's why so many players just shove their chips into the middle, it's easier - but it's not the best.
If you really want to succeed at poker, especially the no-limit variety, learn some basic math and pot odds, and then make sure you are always betting a little bit more than your opponent should be calling, on every street, not just pre-flop or on the flop. Maximize your income by finding the right bet size every time.
If you put your opponent on a straight or flush draw on the flop, they want at least 1.8 - 1 odds to call, so, push them a little. If you can get your opponents to call a 1.8 - 1 draw for just 1.4 - odds, think how much that adds up to over the course of a year! Learn what that narrow window is that they will call for, and bet your hand all the way, then sell it for the right price on the river!
Monday May 28, 2012
It doesn't matter whether you are playing the stock market, roulette, or the ponies, you'll have to ask yourself at some point, "how much of my bankroll should I be risking." Bankroll management isn't usually a subject that people love, let's face it, it's hard enough just to plan and follow a household budget. And, gambling is supposed to be fun, right? Sure, but it's a lot more fun when you are able to keep playing instead of sitting out and watching because you are broke!
If you are sitting down at the blackjack tables with your entire bankroll, you'll find that more than half of the time you'll go home broke. That's no fun. Even if you are experienced at card counting, you can't expect to win more than 6 or 7 out of ten sessions of play. Most experienced gamblers have learned to manage their money, even if that simply means splitting their bankroll into a dozen units and never losing more than one or two units in a day. That's an easy way of budgeting. But what if you know you are the favorite to win at a game of cards? How much should you be betting? One way to protect your bankroll from yourself is to use the Kelly Criterion to figure your bets.
John Kelly wrote a paper about horse racing and figuring a sensible bet size in the 1950's and the principles he established are still used by many gamblers today. His paper focuses on the times when a handicapper knows a certain horse has a better chance of winning than the rest of the betters think, which means the odds offered at the track are much better than the odds of the horse actually winning. Imagine there are just two horses in a race and they are very evenly matched, however, one is loved by the fans and the other scorned, so more money is being bet on the "favorite" horse and you can bet the other horse and get paid 2-1 instead of even money. That would be great. But how much of your $1000 bankroll to bet?
Many gamblers would just make a bet of say half their bankroll, knowing they had a 50-50 chance of winning. Then, if they lost that first $500 they would bet the remaining $500 on the next "great" wager. That's too risky. The Kelly Criterion might establish that your correct bet for this opportunity was one-third of your bankroll, or $333. Then, if you lost, your next wager would be one-third of the remaining $667, or about $222. So, even if you have a losing streak when you are a favorite, you'll still keep some of your bankroll intact and you won't have to stay home on Saturday night watching iCarly.
So for those of you who might actually want to follow some bankroll management, the Kelly Criterion does more than help you chose a bet size, it forces you to use a mathematical formula that will minimize your risk, and more importantly, maximize your income when you are winning. This concept is similar to the Texas Two Step system, which put an emphasis on betting more when you are winning, and less when you are losing. If every player did that, casinos would be few and far between, which they certainly are not.
Friday May 25, 2012

Photo Courtesy (gambling times magazine)
I ran across an old copy of the December 1979 issue of gambling times magazine the other day. It's amazing to see how much has changed since back then. Atlantic City casinos were new, and Caesars had just finished the $100 million Boardwalk Regency. There were ads for Nevada casinos like the Dunes, the Sahara, The Landmark, the Silverbird, and the Stardust. On the cover is a great photo of a dealer Carole Highston at the Playboy Nassau in the Bahamas. If you don't know those names, well, that's because those casinos are all gone. Bummer!
The rooms at the Playboy casino were a little expensive back then, but almost every advertisement in the magazine had an offer to stay at one of the Nevada hotel casinos at a special rate. Three days, two nights were popular, but several were offering a three night stay - all for about $69. And, that's because room costs are fairly low at casinos. Keep that in mind when you go out to gamble.
No, I didn't say you could find a room at your own local casino these days for free, but if you have a casino host and give the property some decent play (even $25 action), you should be able to score some nice deals. You can't expect to get a room on the holiday weekend for free, or even on a Friday or Saturday, but Sunday through Thursday most resorts have plenty of rooms available, and while they may charge $195 a night for a room, their cost to turn the room (clean it) is only about $20, so they can afford to give out plenty of casino rate rooms and free rooms.
The casino rate is usually about half the going rate, but you'll never get the deal if you don't ask for it. And, that deal usually won't cost you any points off your player's card. Having a casino host helps you take advantage of things like free rooms, sporting events, and concert tickets too.
My favorite advertisement in the old gambling times magazine was a special at the Landmark Inn. I stayed there more than once years ago on a free room deal. For every $500 in special chips you purchased at the cage you got to stay in the hotel one night for free. The chips couldn't be cashed back in at the cage, however. When you won, the dealer paid you with regular chips. When you lost, they took your special chips. So, you were tied to the house until you lost $500 in bets.
With 100 hands an hour (yeah, the dealers really cranked 'em out back then) you were bound to lose 50 bets fairly quickly. Even playing $10 a hand you could move your special chips in an hour. I bet $10 to $50 and dumped my $1500 in chips in an hour and a half. No problem, three free nights. Anybody hear about a deal like that available now, you let me know!