The popularity of the television coverage of many of the large no limit tournaments have lead to a lot of misconception about the frequency of bluffing in poker games. Showing bluffs are big drama and make for very exciting entertainment in these shows. The TV producers make sure they are shown in the final edits of the show. Bluffing is more prevalent in no limit poker and tournaments because the players are playing their opponents and their stack size. Bluffing does have a place in some limit poker games as well and can be profitable in situations where it is used correctly however in Limit Hold’em you will usually have to show down the best hand. Bluffs work best when you are heads up against another player, especially if the other player is tight.
In most low limit games, bluffing is futile. For an extra dollar of two there is someone who will want to keep you honest. If there is even one calling station in the game you should not attempt to bluff. Players in low limit games also tend to stay if they have caught even a piece of the flop such as low pair. Trying to run a bluff by them won’t work as they will call all the way to the river.
In mid or higher limit games a bluff has a better chance of being successful if the pot is small. Once the pot gets big the players may be getting the correct odds to stay in. You also may have better success in short handed games as there will usually not be a lot of money in the pot and a player on a flush draw may not want to continue because they are not getting the right odds to do so.
Your position is important when you contemplate a bluff. If you are on the button and everyone has folded, you might be able to steal the blinds with a bluff. However you should not try this too often. If you keep raising all the time on the button the players in the blinds will eventually play back at you. Some players will defend their blinds no matter what they have. If this is the case this type of bluff will not work.
If you are in the blinds in a short handed game and no one has shown any strength before the flop, and the flop has been checked around, you may be able to win with a bet by being the first one to bet. You have a better chance of this working if there re no connecting cards on the board or two suited cards.
In Hold’em for Advanced Players, Authors Sklansky and Malmuth suggest that you should bluff when you think the size of the pot compared with the probability that your opponent will fold is large enough to make it profitable. If there is $40 in the pot and the bet is $10 you are getting 4 to 1 odds. If you think that your opponent will fold more than once in five times then it will be a profitable play. On the reverse side if your hand can only beat a bluff, you should only call if you think the probability that your opponent is bluffing justifies the pot odds you are getting.
Some players feel that you should bluff as a way to advertise that you do bluff in hopes of getting called later when they are not bluffing. Too much advertising can be expensive and you should avoid bluffing if this is your only reason. While a pure bluff will occasionally work you should use it very sparingly when you are in a limit game. Keep in mind that number one rule when attempting a bluff:
Your bluff must be believable in order for it to have a chance of working.